Q&A: Where is the situation in Korea heading?
بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Question & Answer
(Translated)
Where is the situation in Korea heading?
Question:
North Korean news agency, Yonhap, reported on the 21st of April 2013 that both the South Korean Chief of Staff Gen. Jung Seung-Jo and his U.S. counterpart General Martin Dempsey have threatened North Korea to be wary of its on-going threats as it will lead to severe consequences. On the same day, the above-mentioned source stated a high-level government source has announced that the South Korean military has monitored a launch of missile platforms mobile units, suspected of carrying Scud missiles in the east coast of North Korea. North Korea has deployed 7 mobile platforms to launch missiles, including a special platform for the Musudan mid-range missile on the east coast; and with the deployment of two additional platforms, the number of missiles in the region has reached 9 missiles.
Reuters had reported prior to this, on Thursday 18/4/2013, that North Korea has offered a series of conditions to the U.S. and South Korea if they wished to hold dialogues, including the abolition of sanctions imposed by the United Nations because of its nuclear and missile tests, as a likely indication to end weeks of war vows that overshadowed the Korean peninsula.
It also mentioned that the National Defense Commission in North Korea, the highest military body in the country, issued a statement stating that making the Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons will begin when the United States withdraws its nuclear weapons, which Pyongyang says that Washington who brought the weapons to the region…
It is apparent from this that while the statements of a heated war are escalating, so are the statements of dialogue. Therefore where are matters heading? What then are the actual positions of Russia and China? May Allah reward you.
Answer:
In order to understand this issue, we have to review it from its beginning, not on the basis of the latest statements alone, this issue has passed many stages which we will outline first, and then outline the recent developments and the positions of the States:
1. This crisis did not erupt as a result of yesterday’s events, but is a frequent one, and it escalates at every nuclear experiment carried out by North Korea. It escalated at the first experiment in the year 2006, as well as at the second one in the year 2009 which was greater than the first. At that time, dated 25/5/2009, North Korea announced that it is not bound to the truce signed between them and America in the year 1953. Now that a third nuclear test has been successfully performed on 12/02/2013, it also announced on 30/03/2013 that it will not comply with the truce, and declared that it is in a state of war. North Korea then began to focus its missiles off the east coast directing them towards Japan and the U.S. base on the island of Guam, which is controlled by America in the Pacific Ocean since 1898 after it defeated Spain which occupied Guam since 1521; in the year 1950, America declared its annexation to its territory, and deemed the population of more than 180 thousand people as part of its population, which is used for military bases for the Army and Navy and includes approximately 6000 of its soldiers. Thus Guam is considered significant because it serves as a line of defense for its territory from the Pacific Ocean side.
2. What is new this time is that America was able to provoke North Korea with conducting large maneuvers near North Korea. These maneuvers began on 19/2/2013 and will continue until the end of this month 30/4/2013; these maneuvers are large and unprecedented, coinciding with the sanctions set by America in the Security Council, which were approved by Russia and China on 7/3/2013, after the West and America in particular stirred efficiently North Korea’s third experiment on 12/2/2013. These maneuvers created an intense provocation to North Korea, as they were of an unusual nature, which in these maneuvers America introduced advanced types of forces from B-52 aircrafts as well as B-2 that are capable of carrying nuclear bombs, including stealth aircraft and warships carrying a missile system as a way of exhibiting their strength to terrorize North Korea and other countries.
3. The sanctions and maneuvers are a continuation of the techniques of evasion and deception, pressure and threat carried out by America in the region. As for the techniques of evasion and deception carried out by America towards North Korea, for example, North Korea has agreed last year in 02/29/2012 to suspend its nuclear program and allowed the return of inspectors, therefore America sent 240 thousand tons of aid to the North during the first nuclear experiment performed after the death of its leader Kim Jong Il and his son Kim Jong-un came to rule. In the process of evasion and deception to stop the aid, America rose and accused the leaders of the North that they kept these aids to themselves and denied the people of it, thereby as a form of humiliation to North Korea portraying them as beggars and that the officials steal these aids. As for the methods of challenge, pressure and threat used by the United States, it announced last year a new strategy in the Asia / Pacific region regarding strengthening its power in this region by transferring 60% of its Navy forces to cope with potential risks until 2020.
All of these methods used by America were to provoke North Korea to behave in a heated manner while in contrast; they are used by America as a justification to expand their bases near China and Russia in the region under the pretext of resisting danger of North Korea. What concerns for America in the first degree is China, and in the subsequent degree, Russia … and not North Korea, and the expansion of the U.S. presence near China which will face a Chinese reaction, and a lighter Russian reaction. If there were an excuse for America, especially if it perfected its exploitation, it would then be able to expand militarily and even set up a missile shield without causing any hostile fuss.
4. This is what has happened, these provocations affected North Korea and thus propelling it to a heated escalation against America and its neighbors South Korea and Japan. On 9/3/2013, North Korea waved once again the outbreak of war in the region when its official agency published a press release saying: “The Korean Peninsula is heading towards a heated-nuclear war.” This agency also published on 3/4/2013 a communique to the North Korean forces that mentioned: “The American threats will be destroyed with smaller, lighter and more versatile nuclear weapons,” and that the army “had received an approval to strike America with the possibility of using nuclear weapons that are sophisticated and diverse.” It also announced the cancellation of the truce between them and America since the year 1953.
Thereafter, North Korea worked on escalating the situation to the maximum, so it demanded from Russia, Britain and other countries to evacuate their embassies from the country; and called on foreigners to leave South Korea if events escalated; and placed mid-range missiles on the platforms launch and concealed them on the east coast in a move that suggests that they threaten Japan and U.S. bases in the Pacific. It responds to the maneuvers and sanctions imposed on it by the United Nations. It also closed the industrial zone in Kaesong Industrial Complex where companies station South North workers and generated an income that exceeded half a billion dollars last year, an area set up by South Korea motivated by North America as a way to contain the North. The establishment of the inter-Korean industrial zone begun in late 2004, in accordance with a plan that initially started in 1998, which includes 123 South Korean companies, and employs nearly 54 thousand workers from North Korea. As a reaction to this tension with the United States and South Korea, North Korea announced on 02/04/2013 the rehabilitation and operation of all installations in the Yongbyon nuclear compound that was stopped in 2007, including a site for uranium enrichment and reactors of power level 5 MW, by doing this, North Korea aims to becoming accepted by America and the world as a country that has become a nuclear state, and has ballistic missiles able to defend itself and to threaten others.
5. America then took to exploiting these heated tensions resulting from the fiery statements of North Korea, so it took advantage of it to achieve its objective, which is to accelerate the deployment of the missile shield without causing any confrontation with Russia or China, alluring North Korea to find a justification for America to expand its presence in the region, which makes it seem as though it is doing so in defense of America and its allies, as Kerry said during a visit to South Korea on 12/04/2013.
After the threats of North Korea that it will strike the American bases with medium-range missiles owned by them, America announced as reported by The New York Times on 04/04/2013 that it “will establish a missile shield on this island to counter medium-range missiles, as well as the deployment of anti-ballistic missiles warships in the waters of the Pacific Ocean; it was scheduled to deploy their missile shield in 2015,” the newspaper added: “The decision to accelerate the deployment of a missile defense system came under a series of steps taken by Washington to deter North Korea from carrying out any military action or new missile tests, the decision was taken after only a few hours of the North Korean provocations.” The newspaper also added that “spreading the missile shield system in Guam will unleash the warships to become closer to sites near the North Korean seashore.” This means that America will station near China, which points to America having benefited from its provocations with North Korea by hastening the spread of the missile shield in the region, and that it set a trap for North Korea so that it could achieve these objectives. As Japan announced its installment of Patriot missiles in the heart of the Capital to face North Korea’s missiles and it will allow the installment of the missile system in Okynawa Island which has important American bases. With the fact that Japan had been calling for the expulsion of the Americans from there, and now Americans strengthen their presence with their bombardment of North Korea’s threats without anyone’s objections.
The Philippines announced its readiness to install this missiles system and strengthen the American presence on its land, although the people in the Philippines demanded an end to the American presence in the country.
6. As America was successful in exploiting the escalation of North Korea as a justification to expand the U.S. military presence and the deployment of the missile shield, America returned to its promised Democratic party policy, which is to contain North Korea through using dialogue the American way, i.e. not making the situation as an American-North Korean situation, but one that involves other countries in the region, in particular China, to become responsible for the actions of North Korea … And this is what they have been doing, through the six-party talks, so the issue appears as if North Korea is facing the other five countries, and not America …
It is worth mentioning that the Democrats’ policy since Bill Clinton that the United States towards North Korea is to resort to negotiations with them, under their policy of containment, which was successful in 1994 when the first agreement was signed with North Korea, but America avoided, in the era of Republicans, particularly in the first period of Bush JR, making North Korea one of the states of the axis of evil. North Korea took a similar approach to what it did before conducting a nuclear test and declaring a non-compliance with the truce at the beginning of the first Obama administration in 2009, however, this administration did not respond to the North Korea provocations, but called for the resumption of negotiations and allowed South Korea to continue to work on the rapprochement with the North, for this reason, the Democratic administrations tend to negotiate with North Korea and implementation of the containment policy. The situation differs now, where America wanted to employ this latest event to achieve important strategic goals before entering into negotiations and pursuing the containment process, though this will begin after achieving its objectives that it had planned and still plans for since the announcement of installing the missile shield near the Korean peninsula.
Thus, the statements took a different turn but with conditions … It is the American game that leads only to diluting the issue and making it spin in circles under the name of the six-party negotiations to ensure respect for North Korea’s international commitments. [AFP 04/09/2013] The second in command official at the Pentagon, Ash Carter, said: “The United States is in close contact with China, Russia, South Korea and Japan,” and he said that “he believes that China can play a greater role in influencing North Korea to stop its provocations,” stressing “that China’s influence on North Korea is greater than any other country.” U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry mentioned in South Korea before heading to China: “The United States will never accept North Korea as a nuclear power.” Stating, “It is up to Beijing to take a tougher stance with North Korea to push it towards abandoning its nuclear program.” [Reuters: 12/04/2013] Thus, America wants to make the North Korea issue a regional issue especially with China, and not solely an American issue.
7. As for the position of China, it has changed this time from before; it did not support North Korea in its stride. The new Chinese president Ji Jin Ping said: “No country has the right to push Asia into chaos.” And he added: “It is not allowed for anyone to push the region, or even the world, into chaos because of their selfishness.” Also adding: “We should act in consultation to overcome major difficulties in order to ensure stability in Asia, which is facing new challenges, as long as there are sensitive issues and traditional and non-traditional security threats.” [Middle East: 04/07/2013] China’s Foreign Minister Wan Bi called for “the need to resolve the crisis through dialogue.” (same source) The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei has announced that “the best solution for the North Korean nuclear issue is for all parties to show responsibility.” [Reuters: 8/4/2013] China has supported the Security Council resolution to toughen sanctions on North Korea after the latter conducted its third nuclear test. This does not mean that China has abandoned its friend North Korea, but it appears that China believes that the actions of North Korea may harm it and was disturbed by it, because it enhances the U.S. presence in the region and gives America excuses to establish a missile shield in the region as a whole and be directed against it and its missiles, eventually failing its plans of controlling its region.
China announced its regrets for the Pyongyang Declaration to restart the nuclear reactor. The International Atomic Energy Agency said that this declaration is another development, creating great regret and constitutes a flagrant violation of Security Council resolutions. This reactor is the only source for the production of plutonium for North Korea’s nuclear program. It is likely that the North has plutonium stocks enough to make 4 or 8 nuclear bombs.
8. As for Russia’s position, it takes the path as America, disapproving of North Korea’s actions. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Ukashevic declared: “We stand in solidarity with them with respect to rejecting the approach of behavioral provocation and belligerent to Pyongyang at the moment.” But he added at the same time that “we should not give up on making political and diplomatic efforts, because any country can bring the risk of severe turmoil in Northeast Asia.” [Reuters: 09/04/2013] Russia has agreed to tightening sanctions on North Korea in the Security Council after the third experiment two months ago. Russia did not take serious measures towards the U.S. anti-North Korea position, and America’s provocation against it by conducting maneuvers with South Korea while engaging its advanced weapons in these maneuvers, Russia therefore did not heed to it neither did they renounce it, knowing that this poses danger for the region and aims to strengthen the U.S. presence in it to terrorize everyone and impose an American dominance on the world. It is directed against Russia itself in a way to disallow it to have any presence in this region. This behavior indicates the poor international political performance of Russia and it minimizes it to a level not worthy of a great state which has its own international interests and competes with the leading state or works on relegating it off this position.
9. So that, we can say that America was successful in provoking North Korea through the massive maneuvers conducted near North Korea and through sanctions, which led North Korea to escalating the nuclear threats and war atmosphere, which allowed America to find an excuse to expand its military presence in the region and the deployment of the missile shield.
However, the arrogance of America, that is arrogant with its strength makes its goals easily exposed, which allows China to realize the ploys of America’s political and expansionist objectives in the region, and all this will make the installment of the missile shield enter into the spiral of the Chinese opposition from anew.
12 Jumada Al-Thani 1434 AH
22 April 2013 CE