Di Sebalik Pergolakan di Kyrgyzstan
Soalan:Jawapan:
Ya, semua penunjuk mengarah kepada Rusia di sebalik kejatuhan Bakiyev, tapi bukan kerana beliau memperbaharui sewa pangkalan tentera Amerika di Manas sebaliknya menutupnya. Sebenarnya, Russia masih dalam perjanjian atas sisa pangkalan di Manas sewaktu Bakiyev berkuasa. Malahan Russia menyokongnya dalam pilihanraya pada 23.7.2009 setelah beliau memperbaharui kontrak sewa tersebut pada 15.7.2009. Tambahan lagi ,dokongan Rusia dalam kempen pilihanraya begitu hebat, sehingga Presiden Rusia Medvedev sendiri datang pada 2.8.2009 ke Kyrgyzstan untuk mengambil bahagian dalam upacara pelantikan yang diadakan untuk Bakiyev!
Ini bermakna tindakan Rusia tidak didorong oleh pembaharuan perjanjian sewa untuk pangkalan tersebut. Bahkan kerajaan baru yang didokong oleh Rusia sejak dari asal mempunyai perjanjian atas pengkalan tersebut, ianya satu perkara disebut secara jelas oleh para pemimpin revolusi. Oleh kerana itu Rusia tidak mempunyai masaalah dengan pembaharuan sewa atas pangkalan tersebut sejak dari awal lagi, dari segi politik, pangkalan tersebut dapat menyelamatkan imej Russia dari dilihat bersekongkol dengan dasar jahat AS . Russia menganggap pangkalan Manas sebagai transit , iaitu, sebagai pintu keluar-masuk ke Afghanistan, sebuah negeri Islam yang merupakan musuh Rusia dan Amerika. Selanjutnya, tidak ada peranan lain dalam urusan dalaman yang mampu mengekang pengaruh Russia.
Apa yang sebenarnya menjadi kemarahan Rusia sehingga bertindak untuk menghapuskan Bakiyev, bekas agen mereka, adalah masalah lain. Berikut diketengahkan kronologi yang dapat menerangkan hal ini:
Richard Holbrooke, pada 19.02.2010 utusan Amerika ke Afghanistan, telah melakukan kunjungan ke Uzbekistan dan Kyrgyzstan dan bertemu dengan presiden kedua-dua negara. Laman web “Russia Today” melaporkan daripada “Interfax Rusia” pada 19.2.2010 tentang perbincangan di antara Holbrooke dan Presiden Bakiyev, “Prospek hubungan bilateral dan situasi di Afghanistan, dan kedua-dua belah pihak saling bertukar pandangan mengenai situasi di Afghanistan jauh dari sorotan, dan membincangkan cara untuk mengaktifkan kerjasama untuk kepentingan kedua-dua negara.” Beliau juga menyebut bahawa pejabat akhbar presiden Kyrgyzstan melaporkan dari Bakiyev bahawa ia mengumumkan bahawa, “Negaranya mengambil berat akan pentingnya dan keutamaan untuk membangunkan hubungan Kyrgyz-Amerika dan pengaktifan kerjasama bilateral. Interfax Rusia melaporkan berita itu dan dipercayai telah menambah frasa,” jauh dari sorotan “., iaitu secara rahsia jauh dari mata Rusia sehingga Rusia tidak tahu apa yang telah dipersetujui antara Bakiyev dan Amerika. Ini merupakan gambaran dari Rusia bahawa sesuatu yang signifikan telah berlaku antara Presiden Kyrgyzstan dan Amerika.
Pada 17.3.2010, “Russia Today” melaporkan bahawa “Amerika Syarikat baru-baru ini mengumumkan peruntukan $ 5.5 juta untuk membantu Kyrgyzstan dalam membina sebuah pusat latihan bagi unit khas untuk memerangi keganasan di Batken.” “Russia Today” telah menemuramah Alexander Kniazev, pengarah cabang serantau Institusi think-tank CIS di Bishkek tentang pusat tersebut, dia menjawab, “Amerika Syarikat boleh menggunakan pusat ini untuk mencapai kepentingan Amerika di Asia Tengah. Slogan memerangi keganasan hanya alasan untuk mencapai tujuan Amerika seperti yang berlaku di Iraq dan Afghanistan”. Dia menambah, “ melalui projek-projek di Asia Tengah, Amerika berusaha untuk mencabar dan bersaing dengan Rusia dan Cina di kawasan itu.”
Russia mempunyai keraguan tentang kunjungan Holbrooke ke Kyrgyzstan, pertemuannya dengan Presiden Bakiyev jauh dari sorotan, rahsia perjanjian antara kedua-dua belah pihak – yang termanifestasi dengan tertubuhnya pusat latihan khas “memerangi keganasan” oleh Amerika di Kyrgyzstan – dan perekrutan unit-unit khas dengan dalih apa yang disebut kontra-keganasan, untuk menguatkan pengaruh Amerika di Kyrgyzstan, di mana ia kemudiannya boleh bertapak ke daerah lain.
Perjanjian untuk mendirikan sebuah pusat latihan untuk pasukan khas oleh Amerika, atau dengan kata lain, untuk melatih agen-agen Amerika di Kyrgyzstan, adalah hal yang menyedarkan Rusia dan bermakna Amerika sedang cuba melangkau sempadan toleransi Russia. Oleh kerana itu Russia bergegas menggerakkan rampasan kuasa demi menyekat dasar-dasar Bakiyev yang memberi ruang dan menjalin hubungan dengan Amerika, dan jelas bahawa Rusia sangat teruja dengan keberhasilan dalam melaksanakan rampasan kuasa terhadap Bakiyev.
Di pihak Amerika, ianya merupakan suatu kejutan. Juru cakap Jabatan Luar Negeri, Philip Crowley, mengumumkan “keprihatinan yang mendalam atas ketidakstabilan di Kyrgyzstan,” tambahnya lagi, “Kami percaya bahawa kerajaan masih berkuasa, dan Amerika Syarikat tidak mempunyai maklumat bahawa pembangkang telah mengambil alih” (News of the World, 7.4.2010). Hal ini menunjukkan bahawa Amerika bimbang tentang apa yang berlaku dan tidak menyokong pembangkang, dan lebih mesra dengan Kerajaan dibawah Bakiyev. Amerika kemudianya telah menutup pangkalanya di Kyrgyzstan selama tiga hari dan kemudian dibuka kembali selepas pemimpin kerajaan interim Kirgistan Rosa Otunbayeva mengumumkan bahawa pangakalan AS tidak akan terjejas dan akan tetap berpegang dengan perjanjian sebelumnya.
Akur dengan keadaan semasa, Amerika Syarikat secara senyap mengiktiraf kerajaan baru dengan menghantar utusannya, Penolong Setiausaha Negara, Robert Blake, untuk mengadakan perbincangan dengan kerajaan baru di Kyrgyzstan. Dia mengumumkan bahawa Amerika Syarikat puas hati dengan janji-janji kerajaan baru untuk menjamin kewujudan pangkalan Amerika di Manas, dan ini merupakan gambaran yang cukup besar bahawa Amerika sekarang terpaksa akur dengan keadaan semasa, terutama kerana ianya tetap menjamin kewujudan pangkalan udara Manas, dan ini menunjukan bahawa Amerika tidak dapat berbuat apa apa terhadap keadaan semasa, di mana Bakiyev telah melarikan diri ke kampung di bahagian selatan negara, dan dari sana telah berpindah ke Kazakhstan.
Dengan demikian, Amerika tidak mempunyai pilihan, selain daripada menghadapi realiti baru, walaupun hanya sementara. Manakala Rusia telah melakukan rundingan atas situasi semasa di Kyrgyzstan. Timbalan Menteri Luar Negeri Rusia, Gregory Karasin, telah bertemu dengan duta besar AS di Moscow, John Beyrle, pada 13.4.2010. Keduanya berbincang tentang situasi di Kyrgyzstan, dan menunjukkan bahawa mereka telah bersetuju, sehingga keduanya menggesa “Kembali ke keadaan normal di negeri ini!” Sungguhpun begitu, konflik akan berterusan antara Rusia dan Amerika di wilayah itu, dan akan termanifestasi dalam berbagai tindakan dan bentuk, dan pergolakan politik, ekonomi dan sosial.
2 Jamadil Awal 1431 H
16 April 2010
Q&A: The Ousting of President Bakiyev in Kyrgyzstan
بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Question:
Many things have quickly materialised in Kyrgyzstan. The Opposition moved to oust Bakiyev on 08/04/2010 and succeeded in doing so. They seized authority and Bakiyev fled to his hometown in the south of the country. Then today, the 16/04/2010, he forwarded his resignation and left for Kazakhstan.
At the same time one of the first countries to recognize the revolution and ‘bless’ it was Russia such that the interim Prime Minister Roza Otunbayeva engaged in official (phone) talks between herself and the Russian Prime Minister Vladmir Putin on Thursday 08/04/2010, the very day the interim government took control. This means that Russia is behind what has occurred. If this is correct then how is it that Russia has ousted Bakiyev whilst she herself brought him to power in the revolution against Akayev in 2005, and supported his most recent election on 23/07/2009? Was his not closing the American military based in Manas the cause which provoked Russia to oust him?
Answer:
Yes, all indicators point to Russia being behind the fall of Bakiyev, but not because he renewed the American lease of the Manas base instead of closing it. This is because Russia was in agreement with the base remaining whilst Bakiyev was in power. In fact Russia supported his election on 23/07/2009 after he had renewed the lease contract for the base on 15/07/2009, which was before his election and Russia’s supporting him therein. Further, Russia’s support for his election was of a remarkable nature, such that the Russian President Medvedev himself came on 02/08/2009 to Kyrgyzstan to partake in the ceremonies of appointment which were held for Bakiyev!
Thus Russia was not provoked by the renewal of the lease for the base. Even the new government which Russia has brought is in agreement with the base remaining, a matter explicitly mentioned by the leaders of the revolution. Hence Russia is okay with the renewal of the lease for the base in origin, and that is for the purpose of placating America and preventing her evil from Russia in the region. Russia considers the Manas base as a ‘transit’, that is, as passage to and from Afghanistan, an Islamic land and an enemy to both Russia and America. Further, there is no role for this base in internal affairs which affects the influence of Russia.
What actually provoked Russia to remove Bakiyev, their former agent, is another matter, to appreciate which we mention the following occurrences:
Richard Holbrooke, the American envoy to Afghanistan, undertook a visit to Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan on 19/02/2010 and met with the presidents of both nations. The webpage “Russia Today” reported from “Interfax Russia” on 19/02/2010 that Holbrooke discussed with President Bakiyev, “prospects of bilateral relations and the situation in Afghanistan, and the two sides exchanged of views about the situation in Afghanistan away from spotlight, and discussed ways to activate mutual cooperation of interest between both nations.” It also mentioned that the press office of the presidency of Kyrgyzstan reported from Bakiyev that he announced that, “his nation attaches importance and priority to developing Kyrgyz-American relations and the activation of bi-lateral cooperation. The Interfax Russia Agency which reported the news was thought to have added the phrase, “away from spotlight”, that is, in a secret manner away from Russian eyes so that Russia does not know what her agent Bakiyev has agreed to with the Americans. This is a hint from Russia that something significant has occurred between the Kyrgyz President and the Americans.
On 17/03/2010 ‘Russia Today’ reported that “the United States has recently announced the allocation of $5.5 million to assist Kyrgyzstan in building a training centre for special units to combat terrorism in Batken.” ‘Russia Today’ asked Alexander Kniazev, director of the regional Bishkek branch of the CIS Institute think-tank about the centre, to which he replied, “The United States could use this centre to meet its needs in Central Asia. The slogan of fighting terrorism is only a pretext to achieve American goals as is the case in Iraq and Afghanistan”. He added, “The United States is seeking through these projects in Central Asia to challenge and compete with Russia and China in the region.”
The Russians had misgivings about Holbrooke’s visit to Kyrgyzstan, his meeting with President Bakiyev away from the spotlight, the secret agreements between the two sides – which culminated in the establishment of an American centre in Kyrgyzstan for the training of special forces – and the recruitment of clients under the pretext of so-called counter-terrorism, in order to strengthen American influence in Kyrgyzstan, from where it can then move to other regions.
The agreement to establish an American centre for the training of special forces, or in other words, to train agents of America in Kyrgyzstan, was the matter which hit the alarm bells for Russia and meant that the red lines were being approached. Therefore Russia hastened to the coup to prevent the persistence of Bakiyev and his relationship with America, and it was clear that Russia was ecstatic with its victory in implementing the coup against Bakiyev.
As for America, she was shocked. The official spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Philip Crowley, announced “deep concern over the unrest in Kyrgyzstan,” and said, “We believe that the government is still in power, and the United States does not have information that the opposition has taken over” (News of the World, 04/07/2010). This indicates that America was concerned about what was going on and did not support the opposition, but rather was with the Government of Bakiyev. America closed its base in Kyrgyzstan for three days and then re-opened after the leader of the interim Kyrgyz government Rosa Otunbayeva announced that the U.S. base will not be affected and will remain on according to previous agreements.
Submitting to reality, the United States recognized the new government implicitly such that it sent an envoy, Assistant Secretary of State Robert Blake, to hold talks with the new government in Kyrgyzstan. He announced that the United States was satisfied with the promises of the new authorities to ensure the survival of American Manas base, and described this is being appreciable. America now wants to deal with the new reality, particularly as it has ensured the survival of the Manas air base, and that it has become evident that she cannot do anything against this new reality, whereby Bakiyev has fled to his village in the south of the country, and from there has left for Kazakhstan.
Thus, America has no alternative than to deal with the new reality, even if only temporarily. For Russia has negotiated on the current situation in Kyrgyzstan. The Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Gregory Karasin, met with the US ambassador in Moscow, John Beyrle, on 13/04/2010. The two discussed the situation in Kyrgyzstan, and showed that they had agreed, such that they both called for “a return to normality in the country!” Notwithstanding all this, the conflict will continue between Russia and America in that region, and will manifest in various actions and forms, and in political, economic and social turmoil.
02 Jumada al-Awwal 1431 AH
16 April 2010 CE